Big Wins, Small Net Gains: Direct and Spillover Effects of First Industry Entries in Puerto Rico

This study examines how first sizable industry entries reshape local and neighboring labor markets across Puerto Rico using over a decade of quarterly municipality-industry data (2014Q1-2025Q1). Employing robust staggered difference-in-differences estimators and doubly robust frameworks with spatial interference modeling, the research identifies large persistent direct employment and wage gains in treated municipalities while accounting for spillover effects through contiguity networks.

Key Topics: Labor markets, Economic development, Spatial econometrics, Causal inference, Regional economics

Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan

An evaluation of San Juan's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using multi-outcome synthetic control methods that pool economic and public-safety indicators. The study demonstrates how common-weight estimators can clarify policy mechanisms under low-rank outcome structures, finding economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors (restaurants, bars, hospitality) without clear departures in public disorder or violent crime metrics.

Key Topics: Policy evaluation, Synthetic control, Urban economics, Public safety, Alcohol regulation

Disaster, Capital, and Neighborhood Change: Tract-Level Evidence on Post-María Gentrification in Puerto Rico

This paper provides tract-level evidence on post-disaster gentrification patterns following Hurricane María in Puerto Rico. Using vulnerability models and XGBoost classification, it demonstrates that strong post-shock upgrading occurs selectively in tracts combining low baseline incomes with higher educational attainment and lower residential mobility. The findings reveal path-dependent gentrification shaped by pre-existing socioeconomic conditions and provide vulnerability measures to inform anti-displacement policy.

Key Topics: Urban gentrification, Disaster economics, Machine learning, Housing policy, Socioeconomic vulnerability

Rule Relocation in Practice: Multi-Horizon Viability Prediction for Shielded Planning

This paper evaluates a deployment-time safety mechanism for decision-making under latent risk and distribution shift. In Crackworld, a partially observable stochastic gridworld, a hidden damage variable accumulates from risky terrain and gradually makes actions unreliable, producing delayed failures. The study instantiates rule relocation by keeping the safety boundary explicit (battery depletion or damage saturation) and enforcing it at runtime via shielded planning driven by a learned multi-horizon viability predictor. Results show that the relocated safety layer is measurable and inspectable in deployment.

Key Topics: AI safety, Shielded planning, Multi-horizon prediction, Reinforcement learning, Safe deployment

The Rule-Relocation Problem: From Referee Whistles to Thermostat Setpoints in Bio-Inspired AI

This theoretical paper critiques bio-inspired AI architectures that claim to introduce self-authored normativity through homeostatic variables like simulated health and drive reduction. The analysis reveals the Rule-Relocation Problem: normativity is not eliminated but merely shifted from explicit objectives to designer-chosen internal setpoints and viability bounds. The work offers a unified reinterpretation of these approaches, an audit methodology for identifying normative location, and a constructive Safety Envelope + Adaptive Space framework with a testable research agenda.

Key Topics: AI safety, Bio-inspired AI, Normativity, Homeostasis, Allostasis, AI alignment

Who Bears the Burden of Island-Wide Electricity Shortfalls? Evidence from Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico faces persistent electricity reliability challenges, raising a key question: can standard aggregate stress indicators detect the spatial incidence of the economic burden? This paper estimates municipal incidence of monthly shortfalls by combining island-month variation in shortfall measures with predetermined cross-municipality differences in electricity-dependence. Exposure is constructed from 2019 sector composition using electricity-intensity weights; outcomes include real retail sales and municipal employment over 2020-2025. The results indicate that aggregate shortfall metrics are not a reliable basis for detecting granular economic incidence.

Key Topics: Electricity reliability, Infrastructure economics, Puerto Rico, Spatial analysis, Economic burden, Energy policy

The Controlled U.S. Corporate Footprint by Owner Jurisdiction: Evidence from IRS SOI Data (2002–2022)

This paper constructs a 2002-2022 panel from IRS Statistics of Income tabulations to map the controlled U.S. corporate footprint associated with SOI-assigned foreign owner jurisdictions. Using co-equal measures of balance-sheet scale, reported income, and profitability, the research documents persistent concentration among a small set of jurisdictions and a weak alignment between asset scale and reported returns. The analysis situates Puerto Rico within cross-jurisdiction distributions, highlighting recent years in which moderate scale coincides with relatively high reported profitability. The results provide a transparent, replicable baseline for interpreting owner-jurisdiction labels in U.S. corporate tax data.

Key Topics: Foreign-controlled corporations, IRS Statistics of Income, Owner jurisdiction, Corporate profitability, Offshore financial centers, Tax policy, Puerto Rico

Manuscript submitted to National Tax Journal